I have a sad story to tell…
I was speaking with a colleague, Sharon, who belongs to a mastermind group. She recently did a joint venture with a guru, Jim, who works with architects, where she pitched her 4-week course. It was a smash hit and she sold $40,000 worth of course enrollments to Jim’s audience.
Fast forward to this week, when she tells her mastermind group about her success. What do they suggest? That she completely abandon her previous target audience and marketing model, and focus solely on the architect target audience because she had such a great success with them.
Her mastermind group didn’t think, didn’t analyze. They went with a knee-jerk reaction to one success, and the others in the group didn’t pull back the reins and say Whoa!
It’s called the Fallacy of the Small Sample Size. She had one success, with one very warmed-up audience who trusted Jim, their mentor. Anything he suggested to them was to be trusted. So when Jim recommended Sharon’s course, naturally his audience responded favorably.
But you cannot extrapolate that one success into a guaranteed future of successes with a cold audience. The sample size was too small to be significant and predictive. And the type of audience (warm versus cold) can change the calculations significantly.
When one of your own group members makes an across-the-board recommendation, all your members must evaluate that suggestion to see if it’s valid. They shouldn’t just jump on board and agree. It’s easy to agree, and it’s easy to assume, but it’s lazy and not helpful to the person in the Hot Seat.